China’s largest real estate developer believes the country’s property market, a key driver for the economy, has turned and expects conditions to worsen in the coming months as sales prices volumes decline further.

　　中國最大的房產開發商認為，國內房產市場（中國經濟的關鍵推動因素之一）已經轉向，并預期未來幾個月里情況將變得更加糟糕，銷售量和價格進一步下降。

　　China Vanke, the country’s biggest developer by market share, said government efforts during the past year to rein in soaring prices were having a severe impact and developers were being squeezed after sales volumes in 14 of the largest cities halved in September from a year earlier.

　　按市場份額計算，萬科集團(China Vanke)是中國最大的房產開發商。該公司表示，過去一年里政府為遏制樓價飆升而采取的一系列努力，正造成嚴重沖擊，9月份，14個大中城市的銷售量同比減半，開發商受到擠壓。

　　“We can see a trend of declining sales, especially in major cities,” Shirley Xiao, executive vice-president at China Vanke, said on a conference call with investors on Tuesday. “Prices have begun to decline little by little so we think even buyers who are able to buy will choose to wait because they’re targeting even lower price cuts.”

　　“我們可以看到銷售不斷萎縮的趨勢，尤其是在大城市，”萬科執行副總裁肖莉周二在電話會議上對投資者表示。“價格已開始逐漸緩緩下降，因此我們認為，即便是那些有能力購房的買家，也將選擇等待，因為他們期望價格進一步下降。”

　　In recent days, small and sporadic demonstrations have broken out at a handful of real estate sales offices in large cities such as Shanghai, with angry recent homebuyers organising sit-ins and demanding refunds after developers started offering discounts on neighbouring apartments to attract customers.

　　近日，上海等大城市一些樓盤的售樓處爆發了小規模的零星示威，不久前購房的買家在售樓處與開發商人員僵持，要求退款。此前開發商為吸引顧客，開始對鄰近的公寓樓提供折扣。

　　Investors and analysts are watching the Chinese real estate sector closely for signs of collapse because of its importance to the overall economy and the effect a crash could have on everything from global steel and copper prices to social stability in the world’s second-biggest economy.

　　投資者和分析師正在密切關注中國房產行業，留意各種崩盤跡象，原因是該行業對中國整體經濟十分重要，若該行業陷入嚴重低迷，可能對很多事產生影響，從全球鋼價和銅價，到全球第二大經濟體的社會穩定。

　　A 30 per cent drop in property prices would precipitate a collapse in fixed investment in China and the investment-driven economy would experience a so-called hard landing after years of annual growth above 9 per cent, said Wang Tao, a UBS economist.

　　瑞銀(UBS)經濟學家汪濤表示，若房價下跌30%，將引發中國固定投資崩盤，由投資推動的中國經濟在多年保持9%以上的年度增長后，將經歷一場所謂的硬著陸。

　　Property investment accounts for more than 20 per cent of total fixed investment in China and UBS estimates almost 30 per cent of final products in the economy are absorbed by the property sector.

　　房產投資占中國固定投資總額的20%以上，據瑞銀估計，中國經濟近30%的最終產品是被房產行業吸收的。

　　“A property-led hard landing scenario is quite likely in the next few years, even though we do not think the property market is about to collapse now,” Ms Wang said.

　　“房產引發的硬著陸在今后幾年里相當可能發生，盡管我們不認為房產市場即將崩盤，”汪濤表示。

　　Debt-laden provincial governments in China rely heavily on land sales for revenue and have poured investment into commercial housing projects.

　　背負沉重債務負擔的中國省級政府，在財政收入方面嚴重依賴土地銷售，同時它們向商品房項目大舉投資。

　　These local authorities also account for up to 30 per cent of all outstanding bank loans, many of which are collateralised by land and housing developments, so a collapse in the property market could have a devastating knock-on effect.

　　此外，在中國的未償還銀行貸款總量中，地方政府所欠貸款占至多30%，其中許多貸款是用土地和住房開發項目抵押的，因此房產市場崩盤可能造成摧毀性的連鎖效應。

　　A property crash could also be politically destabilising as it would especially hurt the new property-owning middle class, who are the most important constituents for the ruling Communist party. Ms Xiao said Vanke expects price declines in the market to be slow and gradual but if developer discounts become more severe it will follow with its own price cuts.

　　樓市崩盤還可能在政治上帶來影響穩定的效應，因為這將特別沉重地打擊新生的、擁有房產的中國中產階層，這些人對執政的共產黨構成最重要的支持基礎。肖莉表示，萬科預期，房價下降將是緩慢而漸進的，但如果其他開發商出臺更大幅度的折扣，該公司也將拿出自己的減價措施。

　　Average housing prices for the entire country still increased in September from a year earlier, according to official data, but the rate of increase slowed.

　　官方數據顯示，9月份中國全國的平均樓價仍出現同比上升，但增速有所放緩。

　　Despite falling sales and the difficulties they face getting funding, developers are reluctant to offer steep discounts because they hope the government will rescue the market by lifting credit and housing purchase restrictions introduced over the past year.

　　盡管銷售下降，而且在融資方面遭遇困難，但各家開發商仍不愿提供大幅折扣，因為他們希望政府將出手救市，解除過去一年期間出臺的各種信貸和購房限制。

　　“We have a stand-off between homebuyers, developers and the government and everyone is taking a wait-and-see attitude,” Du Jinsong, a real estate analyst at Credit Suisse, said. “This could be very dangerous because if developers all wait until the very last minute to offer discounts the downside for the whole market will be significant.”

　　“目前購房者、開發商與政府之間出現僵持，大家都在采取靜觀其變的態度，”瑞信(Credit Suisse)房地產分析師杜勁松表示。“這可能是很危險的，因為如果各家開發商都等到最后一刻才提供折扣，整個市場的下行趨勢將相當大。”

　　Wen Jiabao, China’s premier, suggested on Saturday that support for the property market is unlikely to come soon as he urged all levels of government to continue strictly implementing Beijing’s tightening measures.

　　中國總理溫家寶上周六暗示，政府不太可能很快采取行動支持房產市場。他敦促各級政府繼續嚴格執行北京方面的收緊措施。

　　Vanke said its third-quarter net profit rose 32 per cent from a year earlier to Rmb606m ($95m).

　　萬科表示，第三季度凈利潤同比增長32%，至6.06億元人民幣（合9500萬美元）。