BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, says that when it comes to China, they're no panda bears.

　　全球最大的資產管理公司貝萊德(BlackRock)說，它并沒有看空中國。

　　But while the firm isn't off fearfully gnawing on bamboo in the corner, they're not exactly, er, a panda bull either.

　　AP然而，盡管貝萊德談到中國時并非一副“熊”樣，但它也并非完全看多中國。

　　In a new research report titled “Can China's Savers Save the World?” eggheads from BlackRock's Investment Institute and Corporate Credit Group try to deconstruct the reality of risk in China.

　　貝萊德旗下投資研究所和企業信用集團的研究員新近發布了一份題為《中國儲戶能否拯救世界？》(Can China’s Savers Save the World?)的研究報告，試圖解析中國所存在風險的真實情況。

　　The way they see it, there are “panda haters' and 'panda huggers.” Panda haters are the commentators who await China's demise. Panda huggers feel that government policy and liquidity will help avoid a Chinese economic apocalypse.

　　這些研究員認為，目前存在“恨中國者”和“親中國者”兩類人。前者是等待中國崩潰的評論人士，后者則認為中國的政府政策和金融流動性將幫助中國經濟避免走向窮途末路。

　　The authors of BlackRock's note seem to fall somewhere in the middle. They believe that China runs the risk that there won't be sufficient funds to meet all of the investment demands of the country's economic actors, all in a battle for funding. “Financial system liquidity not solvency matters.”

　　貝萊德這份報告的作者們所持的觀點似乎介于上述二者之間。他們認為中國的風險是，它沒有足夠資金來滿足該國經濟活動參與者的全部投資要求，這些參與者目前都在拼命爭取資金。報告說，重要的是金融系統的流動性，而不是償付能力。

　　True, the authors contend, there is rapid growth in China, subsidized interest rates and opacity to China's banking system. Real-estate may be overblown and off-balance-sheet exposures are also on the rise. (Not to mention reverse Chinese mergers and SEC investigations blowing up in recent weeks.)

　　報告作者認為，中國經濟正在快速增長，這是不爭的事實，但同時中國也存在利率補貼和銀行系統不透明的情況。中國房地產市場可能已處于強弩之末，中國資產負債表外的風險敞口也在不斷擴大。（更不必說最近幾周爆出的中國企業反向并購和美國證券交易委員會(SEC)對此的調查等事。）

　　“While we are sympathetic to much of the logic behind these fears,' the authors write, 'We believe that these concerns float on some flimsy analysis.”

　　報告作者寫道：雖然我們對這些擔心中國的理由大多表示同情，但我們仍然認為這種擔心所依據的一些分析不足為信。

　　The authors credit China's savers, not the Fed, for China's recovery since 2008. And they point to high domestic savings rates as a positive beacon going forward. With high savings and a current-account surplus, China lacks many of the vulnerabilities that toppled Western credit systems in 2008.

　　報告把2008年以來中國的經濟復蘇歸功于中國儲戶，而不是美聯儲(Fed)。他們指出，中國國內的高儲蓄率是一個積極的燈塔，指引中國經濟向前發展。正是由于存在高儲蓄率和經常賬戶盈余，中國才少了很多導致西方信用體系在2008年崩潰的漏洞。

　　BlackRock does harbor some concern that savings growth rates could stall in the next few years and bank deposits could lull. But they see more of a simmering down than a massive financial panic resulting. The firm expects a slowdown in trend growth over the next few years to 7-8% rather than the 8-10% level of recent years, they write.

　　貝萊德其實也有一些擔心，它認為中國的儲蓄額可能會在未來幾年止步不前，銀行存款可能也會停止增長。但報告作者認為，中國經濟更有可能逐步放緩，而不會出現那種可引發大規模金融恐慌的增長放緩。他們寫道，貝萊德預計未來幾年中國經濟的趨勢增長率將為7%至8%，而不會像近幾年那樣保持在8%至10%的水平。

　　China worry warts or “panda bears” may also miss that much of the growth in China's balance sheet has been quasi-fiscal lending, which is backed by a system that's also seeing a rise in income with a relatively low level of debt, the authors write.

　　報告作者寫道，擔心中國前景的人或看空中國的人可能不了解，中國增加的大部分債務其實一直屬于準財政貸款，這種貸款活動受到某種體系的支持，在這一體系下，中國政府的收入也在增長，債務水平相對較低。

　　Bad debt levels in China will eventually rise, the authors say. “China presents the classic picture of an over-expanding country,” they write. In a worst-case scenario, there could be as much as 7 trillion yuan of bad loans right now, they estimate.

　　報告作者說，中國的壞賬水平最終將上升。他們寫道：中國是一個典型的擴張過度的國家。據他們估計，若按最壞的情況估計，中國目前可能有至多人民幣7萬億元的不良貸款。

　　“But balance sheets are strong, profit growth is subsidized by fixed lending and deposit rates, and economic growth itself should be strong enough to absorb most reasonable estimates of losses without serious challenges to financial system stability,” they write.

　　報告作者寫道：中國資產負債表強勁，固定的存貸款利率補貼了利潤的增長，經濟增長的強勁程度，足以在不威脅金融體系穩定性的前提下，將絕大多數合理范圍內的貸款損失消化掉。

　　And in a very non-American fashion, China runs a large surplus, not reliant on foreign funding. China's current account will be more permeable as it moves to internationalize its currency, the authors say, but 'wholesale capital flight is unlikely' given the regulation of Chinese deposits.

　　跟美國很不同的一點是，中國的經常賬戶有大量盈余，不用依靠外國資金。報告作者說，隨著人民幣不斷國際化，中國經常賬戶的滲透性將更強，但資本大規模流動的可能性不大，因為中國對存款有著嚴格監管。