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China raised interest rates for the fourth time in less than six months in a fresh attempt to battle rising inflation that has weighed on consumers and businesses in the world's No. 2 economy.
中國在不到六個月的時間里第四次加息。這是中國政府阻擊不斷上升的通脹率的最新嘗試。通脹問題已經讓中國這個世界第二大經濟體的消費者和企業倍感憂慮。
The People's Bank of China said benchmark rates would increase on Wednesday by a quarter percentage point to 3.25% for one-year deposits in the local currency, and 6.31% for one-year loans. The central bank has now raised the official cost of credit by one percentage point since October, but deposit rates remain well below the rate of inflation, and lending rates are only slightly above it.
中國人民銀行宣布周三起將基準利率上調0.25個百分點,一年期人民幣存款利率上調至3.25%,一年期貸款利率上調至6.31%。自去年10月以來,中國央行已經累計加息一個百分點,但存款利率仍遠低于通脹率,而貸款利率也僅略高于通脹率。
The central bank's statement Tuesday said the increase would also apply to mortgage loans. That was also true with previous increases, but Tuesday was the first time in the series of recent moves─in October, December, and February─that the central bank flagged the effect on mortgages, indicating at least part of its motivation is to contain rising property prices that have been a major source of public complaint.
Zuma Press中國央行的加息舉措對周二早間美國的外匯市場、原油期貨均產生了影響。中國央行周二發布的聲明說,此次加息也適用于個人住房公積金貸款。這和前幾次加息的情況相同。但在最近幾次加息中(去年10月、12月和今年2月),這一次是央行首次明確指出加息對個人住房公積金貸款的影響。這至少說明央行加息的部分動機是遏制不斷上漲的房價。高房價是公眾抱怨的主要焦點。
A new rate increase was widely expected, though the timing of Tuesday's news─on a national holiday when markets and most businesses were closed─was earlier than some expected. That prompted speculation that the consumer-price index reading for March─scheduled to be announced next week─may be higher than Beijing had hoped. In both January and February, the CPI rose 4.9% from a year earlier, down slightly from November's 5.1% but still running near two-and-a-half-year highs.
市場普遍預期央行會再一次加息,但周二宣布加息還是早于一些人的預期,因為這一天正好是全國性假日,市場休市,大多數企業也沒有上班。這也引發市場猜測定于下周公布的3月份消費者價格指數(CPI)可能高于中央政府的預期。1月和2月,CPI較上年同期上升4.9%,略低于去年11月5.1%的水平,但仍接近兩年半來的高點。
"This rate hike suggests that the March CPI that is to be released early next week may have surprised to the upside," said Morgan Stanley economist Wang Qing in a note. "It also suggests that Chinese authorities are confident in the sustainability of underlying growth momentum."
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)經濟學家王慶在一份報告中寫道,本次加息暗示將于下周初公布的3月份CPI可能超出市場預期出現上漲。這也意味著中國有關部門對潛在增長勢頭的可持續性充滿信心。
China's leaders are trying to manage a precarious balance between damping inflation─which, at much higher levels, has triggered social unrest in China in decades past─and keeping its economy churning fast enough to generate jobs for its huge population. Beijing's success or failure holds enormous consequences for the global economy because Chinese economic growth is major driver for corporations and economies that sell consumer goods, such as cars and computers, and commodities, such as steel and copper, to China.
中國領導人正試圖在阻擊通脹和保持經濟平穩較快發展之間維系岌岌可危的平衡。已經處于較高水平的通脹在過去幾十年中曾引發中國社會的動亂,而保持經濟平穩較快發展才能為中國的大量人口創造就業。中國政府能否成功處理這兩方面的問題對全球經濟影響重大。因為對于向中國出售汽車和電腦之類的消費品以及鋼材和銅之類的大宗商品的企業與經濟體來說,中國經濟增長是主要驅動力。
Tuesday's announcement sent the Australian dollar down against the U.S. dollar, on concerns about the impact of China's tightening on demand for Australia's iron ore and other minerals.
中國央行周二的公告引發澳元兌美元下跌,因為市場擔心中國緊縮政策對澳大利亞鐵礦石和其它礦藏需求的影響。
Developing economies around the world are battling soaring consumer prices, thanks in part to ultra-low interest rates in developed economies that are trying to keep growth from petering out. Chinese policy makers have argued that loose monetary policy in the U.S. causes imported inflation pressure in China because it boosts commodity prices and causes funds to flow into faster-growing emerging markets.
全球各發展中國家都在努力應對不斷飆升的消費價格,造成價格上漲的原因之一是發展中國家為避免經濟增長枯竭而實施了超低利率。中國的決策人士一直說,美國的寬松貨幣政策給中國帶來了輸入性通脹壓力,原因是美國的政策推高了大宗商品價格,造成資金流入經濟增長更快的新興市場。
South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines have already reported consumer-price rises for March, and all were either at post-financial-crisis highs or near them, signaling region-wide pressure to continue to raise interest rates. Vietnam on Tuesday said it will raise the minimum wage for public servants and employees of state companies by 13.7% from May, a moved designed to help employees cope with rising prices but one that economists said would fuel inflation further.
韓國、泰國、印度尼西亞和菲律賓已經公布說3月份消費價格上漲,價格處于金融危機后的最高水平或接近最高水平,顯示了地區范圍的繼續加息壓力。越南周二說,從5月份開始將公務員和國有企業員工的最低工資上調13.7%,此舉意在幫助員工們應對不斷上漲的價格,不過經濟學家說這會進一步推高通脹。
In addition to raising interest rates, China has also sharply increased the share of deposits that lenders must keep on reserve with the central bank in an effort to reduce the flow of credit after two years of huge loan growth. Authorities have also pressured companies, including Unilever PLC, to delay planned increases in the prices of their food products and consumer staples.
除加息外,中國還大幅提高了銀行存款準備金率,以便在持續了兩年的貸款大幅增長后減少信貸流。有關部門還向包括聯合利華(Unilever PLC)在內的企業施壓,讓它們推遲食品和主要消費品的預定漲價。
Property prices have continued to rise in most major Chinese cities despite a series of measures by central-government regulators to rein them in, including higher down-payment requirements for mortgages and outright bans on buying second or third homes in some cities.
盡管中央政府監管部門采取了一系列措施控制房價,中國大部分主要城市的房價卻繼續攀升。政府的措施包括提高首付比例,禁止部分城市二套房或三套房的購買。
Wang Yuanhong, an economist of the State Information Center, a think tank affiliated with China's economic planning agency, estimated that CPI growth accelerated to 5.2% or 5.3% in March, as price increases spread increasingly to non-food items. Tuesday's rate move came because " the country faces very big pressures in curbing inflation and liquidity," he said.
中國發改委下屬的國家信息中心經濟學家王遠鴻估計,由于漲價趨勢越來越多地擴大到非食品領域,3月份中國CPI漲幅將增至5.2%或5.3%。他說,周二的加息是因為中國在控制通脹和流動性方面面臨巨大壓力。
Still, some economists think China may be nearing the end of its tightening efforts. 'We think rates may now have peaked,' economist Mark Williams from consulting firm Capital Economics said in a note, pointing to data he said indicated a slowdown in economic activity and inflation leveling out.
盡管如此,一些經濟學家卻認為,中國可能開始接近緊縮措施的尾聲。咨詢公司凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)經濟學家威廉姆斯(Mark Williams)在報告中說,我們認為利率目前可能已經觸頂,他說有數據顯示經濟活動放緩,通貨膨脹率持平。
In a survey conducted in late March, all ten economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires expected a fresh interest-rate move by the end of June, with about half predicting there would also be another quarter-point increase afterward.
道瓊斯通訊社(Dow Jones Newswires) 3月底進行的一項調查顯示,受訪的10位經濟學家均預計6月底之前會有新一輪的加息舉措,其中約有半數經濟學家預計之后利率會再上調0.25個百分點。
Tuesday's increase fell on the tomb-sweeping festival holiday, marking the latest in a string of oddly timed rate announcements. The last two rate moves were on Feb. 8, the final day of the weeklong Lunar New Year holiday; and Dec. 25, Christmas Day, which isn't an official holiday in China.
周二的加息正值中國清明節,此前中國有一系列的加息舉措是在出人意料的時間宣布的。前兩次加息分別是在今年2月8日(春節假期的最后一天)和去年12月25日(圣誕節)。圣誕節在中國并非公共假日。
Goldman Sachs economist Yu Song said he isn't predicting another increase, but if the central bank were to raise interest rates again during the next public holiday, which starts on May 1, "it probably wouldn't surprise many people."
高盛(Goldman Sachs)經濟學家宋宇說,他預計不會有新一輪加息,不過假如央行在5月1日開始的下一個公共假期再次加息,或許不會令很多人感到意外。
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