China’s central bank likes to keep things mysterious. Its latest move - a policy shift that increases banks’ requirements to keep funds in reserve rather than use them to make loans - was communicated privately to the banks with no official announcement to the markets. Associated Press/Xinhua

　　中國央行喜歡把事情搞得很神秘。其最新措施就是通過私下渠道向銀行傳達的，沒有正式向市場公布。這條措施要求銀行把更多資金存為準備金，而不是用來發放貸款。

　　Secret or otherwise, at first sight the policy shift looks like a move toward tightening. After all, tying up funds in the central bank’s vaults rather than allowing them to be loaned out will hardly support growth in China’s credit-addicted economy. The markets certainly interpreted it that way, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.4% Monday, bucking a rising trend for other markets in the region.

　　不管神秘不神秘，初看之下，這個政策變化似乎是朝著緊縮邁出的一步。畢竟，把央行金庫里的資金凍結起來、不讓貸出去，將很難對依賴信貸的中國經濟增長形成支撐。市場肯定是這樣解讀的，周一上證綜合指數一反地區內其他市場的上漲趨勢，下跌了1.4%。

　　But first sight might not tell the whole story. Sustained trade surpluses, illegal hot money inflows and foreign direct investment mean there is a constant stream of cash coming into China’s economy. On average in the first 7 months of 2011 China’s banks purchased a net 258 billion yuan ($40.4 billion) a month in foreign exchange.

　　但第一眼的印象不一定是全貌。持續的貿易順差、非法熱錢流入和外商直接投資，都意味著將有資金源源不斷地流入中國經濟之中。2011年前七個月，中國銀行業平均每個月凈買入人民幣2,580億元（約合404億美元）的外匯。

　　The Central Bank is engaged in a constant battle to prevent that cash finding its way into the domestic economy, stoking inflationary pressure. Their weapons of choice: increases in the reserve requirement ratio and sales of low yielding bonds. Both force the banks to hand the cash over to the Central Bank rather than lending it out.

　　央行參與了一場曠日持久的行動，要阻斷這些資金流入國內經濟、加劇通脹壓力的通道。他們喜歡使用的工具是上調存款準備金率并出售低息債券。兩種辦法都強制要求銀行把現金交給央行，而不是貸出去。

　　The new policy will have the same effect. With banks now required to hold reserves against 4.4 trillion yuan of cash currently held in margin deposits and the reserve requirement ratio currently at 21.5% for major banks, the final impact will be to drain almost 900 billion yuan from the banks' coffers.

　　新政策將產生同樣的效果。銀行已被要求針對當前4.4萬億元的保證金存款繳納準備金，而當前主要銀行的法定存款準備金率為21.5%，由此來看，最終影響將是從銀行的金庫里吸走接近人民幣9,000億元的流動性。

　　But by phasing in the change over the next six months, the drain will be offset by the continued inflows into the financial system. Consider, in September the new policy will require the banks to pay an extra 151 billion into reserves. If inflows from the trade surplus, hot money and elsewhere stay in line with their level in the first 7-months of the year they would more than compensate for the drain on liquidity.

　　但由于這一變化將在接下來六個月逐步實施，吸走的流動性將被不斷流入金融系統的流動性所抵消。想想，在9月份，新政策將要求銀行把額外的1,510億元繳存為準備金。如果來自貿易順差、熱錢和其他渠道的流動性流入水平跟今年頭七個月一樣，那么這些流動性除了補償被吸走的那一部分之外就還有剩余。

　　Of course, continued inflows cannot always be counted on. Twice since the beginning of 2010 China's monthly trade surplus has turned to deficit. If the U.S. or European economies take a turn for the worse, hot money flows could even change direction and start heading back offshore -- that is what happened at the height of the financial crisis in early 2009.

　　當然不能總是指望流動性持續流入。2010年年初以來，中國月度貿易順差曾經兩次出現逆差。如果美國或歐洲經濟急轉直下，熱錢甚至有可能改變流動方向，開始回流至境外。2009年年初金融危機最嚴重時期就是這樣一種情況。

　　There are 813 billion yuan in central bank bonds falling due before the end of February, of which 351 billion yuan come due in September. That means 351 billion yuan flowing back from the central bank to the banks. Normally the monetary policy makers would sell more bonds to replace those falling due. But if they want to help banks cough up the cash needed to meet the new reserve requirement they could simply go slow on bond issuance.

　　有8,130億元的央票在明年2月之前到期，其中3,510億元在9月到期。這意味著將有3,510億元的資金從央行回流到銀行。正常情況下，貨幣政策制定者會出售新的債券來替代這些到期債券。但如果他們希望幫助銀行籌集現金、滿足新的準備金要求，則有可能放慢發行債券的步伐。

　　A more extreme move, and one that has been rumored in the markets, would be to cut the reserve requirement ratio. A one percentage point cut in the ratio would release around 760 billion yuan in funds, almost matching the drain from the new policy move.

　　一個更極端的措施，也是市場盛傳的措施，將是下調存款準備金率。存款準備金率下調一個百分點，就會釋放7,600億元的資金，接近新政策吸走的資金。

　　On its own, the central bank's latest gambit is a tightening of the reigns. But if China's economy shows signs of slowing, the monetary policy makers have ways and means of neutralizing its impact.

　　就其本身而言，央行的新措施是一種收緊。但如果中國經濟顯示出放緩跡象，貨幣政策制定者是有辦法沖銷其影響的。