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The first data point on the state of the Chinese economy in August shows output at the world's factory continuing to contract.
首個反映中國經濟8月份狀況的數據顯示,世界工廠的產出繼續萎縮。
The preliminary reading for August on HSBC's survey of manufacturers came in at 49.8, up slightly from 49.3 in July, but still below the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction.
匯豐銀行(HSBC)的8月份制造業調查數據初值為49.8,略高于7月份的49.3,但仍然低于擴張與收縮分界線50。
Readings for output, new orders and new export orders all pointed to a deterioration in conditions since July. The low reading for the HSBC purchasing managers' index, or PMI, is especially striking because a large part of the sample covers small exporters, a bellwether for the state of foreign demand and the outlook for the global economy.
產出、新訂單和新出口訂單數字都顯示7月份以來狀況惡化。匯豐采購經理人指數(PMI)處于低位之所以尤其不一般,是因為其樣本中有很大一部分覆蓋了小型出口企業,而這些企業是國外需求狀況和全球經濟前景的一個風向標。
China's small businesses have had a tough year. At home, credit rationing has starved them of finance, electricity shortages have starved them of power, and rising wages have starved them of cheap labor. A recent report by China's central bank points to increases in labor costs in the second quarter of 10% to 30% from last year.
這一年中國小企業的日子過得很艱難。在國內,信貸配給讓它們無法融資,電力短缺讓它們用不上電,工資上漲又讓它們無法獲得廉價勞動力。中國央行最近一份報告顯示,二季度勞動力成本較去年同期上漲了10%到30%。
Abroad, a faltering global recovery has taken the edge off demand for exports, and the evidence of the latest HSBC survey is that new orders from foreign customers continue to fall.
全球復蘇勢頭減弱降低了出口需求。匯豐銀行最新調查提供的證據是,來自外國客戶的新訂單仍在減少。
Stock markets in Shanghai and Hong Kong took comfort that the data showed the situation for manufacturers deteriorating at a slower pace than in the previous month. But the real situation could be even worse than the PMI reading suggests.
上海和香港股市因為數據顯示制造業狀況的惡化速度較前月趨緩而得到了安慰。但真實情況可能比PMI數據顯示的還要嚴重。
Paul Cavey, China economist at Macquarie, says a large and increasing number of small businesses are being forced to accept receivables, a kind of IOU, in lieu of payment for goods. Small firms report a lengthening wait for payment and receivables as a share of sales mounting to worrying levels.
麥格理(Macquarie)中國經濟學家許保羅(Paul Cavey)說,數量龐大且越來越多的小企業正在被迫接受應收賬款(receivable,借據的一種)以替代貨款。小企業反映等待付款期延長,應收賬款在銷售收入中的比例也達到了令人擔憂的水平。
The increasing acceptance of promised payment not only points to small businesses stretching to keep production lines running. It also suggests that if bankruptcies do occur, the impact will be greater. If one small business goes under with months of bills unpaid, all the firms in the supply chain will take a hit.
小企業越來越多地接受承兌票據,反映的不僅是它們竭力保持生產線運轉。這種現象還說明,如果真的發生破產,其影響將會變得更大。如果一家連月拖欠賬單的小企業破產,其供應鏈上的所有企業都會遭殃。
In an economy still expanding at an annualized rate of 9.1%, widespread business failures seem unlikely. But with concerns mounting about the global recovery, this latest evidence of a sequential slowdown in the world's factory is another troubling data point.
在一個年化增長速度仍有9.1%的經濟體中,大范圍的企業倒閉似乎是不太可能發生的。但考慮到全球經濟復蘇方面越來越強烈的擔憂,顯示世界工廠連續放緩的這一最新證據實為又一個令人煩惱的數據。
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