In 1911, Winston Churchill helped kick-start oil's ascent by converting the Royal Navy to run on it. But investors shellacked by the sudden reversal in the price of oil and other commodities this week would be better off remembering words spoken by Churchill decades later as the tide turned in World War II: 'Now, this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.

　　1911年，溫斯頓•丘吉爾（Winston Churchill）下令英國皇家海軍將石油用作主要艦船燃料，此舉開啟了油價上升的進程。而本周，因石油和其它大宗商品價格突然逆轉而備受打擊的投資者最好能記住幾十年后丘吉爾在二戰轉折點后所說的一句名言：這不是結束，這甚至并非結束的序幕。但或許，序幕即將結束。

　　Commodities markets, slammed in late 2008, resumed their bull run in early 2009. Economic recovery, led by China, was a major factor, particularly for oil and copper. But loose monetary policy, which aided recovery and pushed investment dollars toward hard assets, has also helped, particularly for precious metals.

　　DPA/Zuma Press本周銀價已跌去了近25%，白銀是新近加入跌價大軍的大宗商品。在2008年遭受重創的大宗商品市場在2009年初進入了牛市。中國領頭的此輪經濟復蘇是促成牛市的一個主要因素，尤其是對石油和銅來說。但尤其是對于貴金屬來說，寬松的貨幣政策也功不可沒。貨幣政策的寬松促進了復蘇，也令投資美元涌向了硬資產。

　　Two years into this run, the balance of risk for where commodities prices go from here is turning negative.

　　市場進入此輪牛市已長達兩年，以當前的價格水平為起點，未來大宗商品價格走低的風險在加大。

　　This week, silver, a late-comer to the party, has dropped almost a quarter. Crude oil slumped as much as 7.7% Thursday morning despite nominally bullish drops in U.S. inventories announced the day before. Instead, investors are probably focusing on weak gasoline demand.

　　本周銀價已跌去了近25%，白銀是新近加入跌價大軍的大宗商品。盡管周三美國宣布石油庫存下降，但周四上午原油價格還是暴跌7.7%。投資者可能主要擔心疲軟的汽油需求。

　　Copper, meanwhile, has struggled to gain momentum since December. Efforts to rein in the property market and inflation in China, which accounts for 39% of global copper consumption, appear to be biting.

　　與此同時，自去年12月以來，銅價一直試圖加速上漲。但中國控制房地產市場和通脹的措施似乎抑制了銅價的上漲。中國的銅消費量占全球的39%。

　　The wild card is U.S. monetary policy. Real interest rates are very low, particularly at the near end of the curve. This has juiced precious metals in particular. But Francisco Blanch at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research points out that real rates also display a reasonable inverse correlation of 36% with oil prices since 1990. That makes sense, as low real rates suppress supply by encouraging hoarding of oil by speculators and producers in expectations of higher returns in the future.

　　但美國的貨幣政策是一個不確定的因素。實際利率非常低，幾乎到了利率曲線的末端，這令貴金屬變得尤其有吸引力。但美銀美林（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）全球研究團隊的布蘭奇（Francisco Blanch）指出，自1990年以來，實際利率和油價呈合理的負相關關系，相關度為36%。這可以說得通，因為較低的實際利率會鼓勵投機者和生產者囤積石油（因為他們預計未來的收益會更高），從而抑制石油供應。

　　Monetary policy is tightening already in major emerging markets such as India, Brazil and China--key demand centers for commodities--as well as Europe. The question is, what happens when the Federal Reserve's second phase of quantitative easing, or QE, ends next month?

　　印度、巴西和中國等主要新興市場的貨幣政策正在緊縮，這三個國家也是大宗商品的重要消費國。同樣收緊貨幣政策的還有歐洲。問題在于，當下個月美聯儲第二輪量化寬松（quantitative easing，英文簡稱：QE）結束時市場會如何？

　　For commodities bulls, Thursday's weak U.S. employment data are actually supportive for commodities, because that should prompt more QE, reducing real rates further.

　　對正處牛市的大宗商品來說，周四美國公布的疲弱就業數據實際上會對大宗商品形成支撐，因為這應該會促使美聯儲推出更多的量化寬松政策，進一步降低實際利率。

　　QE3 is not a given, though. If it were, gold and silver would be strengthening. And while the Fed probably won't reduce the size of its balance sheet for months to come, Chairman Ben Bernanke acknowledged explicitly earlier this month that further monetary easing risked escalating inflation and derailing recovery.

　　但QE3能否推出還不確定。如果能，金銀價格會進一步走高。盡管未來數月美聯儲可能不會縮減資產負債表的規模，但本月初美聯儲主席貝南克（Ben Bernanke）曾明確承認，進一步放寬貨幣政策有加劇通脹破壞復蘇的風險。

　　There is a further twist. Even if QE3 materializes, it could ultimately hurt industrial commodities especially. China's continuing linkage of the yuan to the dollar means further U.S. monetary easing would intensify domestic inflation. The risk of Beijing slamming on the brakes to contain prices, significant already, would rise further. And if China's appetite for raw materials is sated suddenly, you better be betting on QE33 to sustain the commodities bull run.

　　還有一個問題：即使最終推出QE3，也可能損害工業商品。中國繼續讓人民幣盯住美元意味著美國進一步放寬貨幣政策可能加劇其國內的通脹水平。中國政府急踩剎車控制物價（已經開始這么做）的風險會進一步上升，而如果中國對原材料的胃口突然滿足，那你最好期待QE3能支撐大宗商品市場的牛市。