Instant messaging applications for mobile devices, such as BlackBerry Messenger, are becoming so popular that use of text messages by 15-24 year olds will fall by a fifth in many large markets including the UK, analysts predict.

　　分析師們預測，隨著移動設備上的即時通訊應用如BlackBerry Messenger (BBM)日益流行，在英國等許多大型市場的15至24歲用戶中，手機短信的使用量將下降五分之一。

　　Mobile Youth, a consultancy, forecasts that text, or SMS, volumes will drop by 20 percent in the next two years in regions including the UK, Indonesia, South Africa and Brazil, where BBM is particularly popular among teenagers and students.

　　咨詢公司Mobile Youth預計，手機短信(SMS)未來兩年在英國、印度尼西亞、南非和巴西的總發送量將下降20%，在這些國家，BlackBerry Messenger在青少年和學生當中尤為流行。

　　"We’ve seen SMS usage fall among young people and the main driver is BlackBerry,” said Graham Brown, director at Mobile Youth.

　　Mobile Youth公司董事格雷厄姆·布朗(Graham Brown)表示：“我們觀察到年輕人中的手機短信使用量出現下降，而黑莓(BlackBerry)是主要因素。”

　　BBM usage has exploded in many countries in recent years, with volumes increasing 500 percent.

　　近幾年BBM的使用量在許多國家出現爆炸式增長，使用量增幅達500%。

　　More than 39m people use BBM, according to Research in Motion, maker of the BlackBerry, although it is yet to take off significantly in the US.

　　制造黑莓的Research in Motion (RIM)公司稱，使用BBM的用戶超過3900萬人，盡管這項服務在美國尚未大規模流行。

　　Text messaging has been a cash cow for mobile operators in recent years but instant messaging services allow unlimited mobile chat without needing to pay for each transmission.

　　最近幾年手機短信一直是移動運營商的搖錢樹，但使用即時通訊服務可以不受限制地移動聊天，而不需要為每條消息付費。

　　BBM is free on BlackBerry devices, even for “pay and go” users with no monthly contract, while other smartphone apps such as Beluga and WhatsApp use minimal amounts of data, and charge a small one-off fee.

　　在黑莓手機上BBM是免費的，即使對沒有包月費的“隨用隨付”用戶也是如此，而其他智能手機應用程序，如Beluga和WhatsApp，會使用極少量的數據流量，并收取少量的一次性費用。

　　"Talking to some of the operators, BBM has certainly had an impact on their SMS revenue,” said Pete Cunningham, senior analyst at Canalys.

　　Canalys公司高級分析師皮特?坎寧安(Pete Cunningham)表示：“與一些運營商的交談顯示，BBM肯定對他們的短信收入造成了影響。”

　　Richard Windsor, mobile analyst at Nomura, has predicted that instant messaging clients could hit SMS, although he has not seen any impact yet.

　　野村證券(Nomura)移動產業分析師理查德·溫莎(Richard Windsor)曾預測，即時通訊客戶端可能打擊手機短信，不過迄今他還沒有觀察到任何影響。

　　"Once it [SMS] starts to decline, I think it could continue to decline until it hits zero,” he said.

　　他說：“（手機短信）一旦開始下降，我認為它會一路下降到零。”

　　Operators could stand to benefit in some ways from instant messaging because BBM used their network more efficiently than SMS, saving operating costs, said RIM.

　　RIM稱，即時通訊服務在某些方面也會對運營商有利，因為相比手機短信，BBM能以更高效率使用運營商的網絡，節省運行成本。