Domestic imperatives rather than the tinkering of political leaders will likely close the trade gap between the United States and China, a top economist said Friday. 美國一位知名經濟學家上周五說，有望縮小美國與中國之間貿易差額的，與其說是政治領導人的小打小鬧，不如說是美國國內已經存在的各種動力。

　　Harvard University economic professor Martin Feldstein made the case that a series of forces already in play will help do what political leaders have failed to accomplish, which is put in place a path to help rebalance a relationship that sees a massive outflow of dollars from the U.S. into Chinese hands. This imbalance is a major driver of America’s overall trade deficit, and become a major political problem complicating the two nations’ relationship. 哈佛大學經濟學教授費爾德斯坦(Martin Feldstein)認為，一系列已經在發揮作用的力量將有助于完成政治領導人沒有完成的任務，那就是幫助恢復美中經濟關系的平衡，不再讓美元從美國大量流入中國人手中。這種失衡是美國整體貿易赤字的一個重要成因，并已成為一個讓兩國關系復雜化的政治問題。

　　Feldstein’s outlook will strike many as overly optimistic, given that the U.S. and others have been working with little apparent success to induce the Chinese to allow the yuan, which is currently pegged to the dollar, to rise relative to the greenback. While Chinese authorities have allowed a very modest appreciation of late, many have said what has happened is insufficient to redress a situation almost all view as unsustainable. 很多人會覺得費爾德斯坦的這番展望過于樂觀，畢竟美國和其他國家都在努力誘導中方允許人民幣相對美元升值，取得的成功似乎卻是微乎其微。目前人民幣同美元掛鉤，雖然中國有關部門最近允許人民幣以非常溫和的幅度升值，但很多人說過，已有的升值不足以糾正一個幾乎所有人都認為不可持續的局勢。

　　The relationship between the dollar and the yuan even became a sticking point in the Federal Reserve’s effort to stimulate the economy by buying longer-term U.S. government debt. For a time that action depressed the dollar and made Chinese goods even cheaper in global markets. That frustrated European authorities dealing with their own economic problems, and angered Chinese leaders, who were already trying to deal with signs of inflation and economic overheating in their own economy. 美元與人民幣的關系，甚至成了美聯儲(Federal Reserve)通過購買較長期美國國債刺激經濟的一個爭議之處。一段時間內，此舉將壓低美元匯率，使中國商品在美國以外的其他市場更加便宜。這使正在處理自身經濟問題的歐洲當局，以及已經面臨通脹和經濟過熱跡象的中國領導人大為不滿。

　　Feldstein, who was speaking at an economics conference in Denver, is not counting on the political class to solve the problem. Instead, he believes the U.S dollar needs to be allowed to fall, U.S. households need to save more, and government budget deficits need to shrink. 費爾德斯坦是在丹佛市一個經濟論壇上發表這些觀點的，他不指望政治家能夠解決問題。相反，他認為美元需要被允許下跌，美國家庭需要提高儲蓄，政府預算赤字需要降低。

　　The academic reckons all of these things are possible, even probable. “Substantial progress will be made over the next several years” on the required fronts. He’s hopeful on budget deficits due to an improving economy and what he hopes will be an increased realization among elected leaders borrowing must be lowered to a more sustainable path. 這位學者認為這一切都是有可能的，甚至是大有可能。未來幾年，這些問題的解決將會取得“長足進步”。他對預算赤字問題表示樂觀，是因為經濟在改善，并且他預計民選領導人將越來越多地認識到借款規模必須降低到更可持續的水平。

　　On the China side of the equation, Feldstein expects contributions as well. First, he notes that the real value of yuan appreciation is quite a bit higher than what officials are implementing relative to their dollar peg, which is helpful. How so? Feldstein points to the impact of higher Chinese price inflation relative to the very low price gains seen in the U.S., which he says drives up the “real” value of the yuan relative to the dollar. 費爾德斯坦預計，中國這邊也會做出貢獻。首先他指出，人民幣實際匯率的升值比官方相對于美元實施的升值快很多，而這是有助于化解失衡的。為什么這么說呢？費爾德斯坦提到了中國物價上漲比美國更快的影響。他說，這種情況提高了人民幣相對于美元的“實際”匯率。

　　The economist also sees Chinese policies creating the conditions for better levels of domestic spending, noting “it is important these policies are rooted in domestic considerations.” 這位經濟學家還認為，中國的政策為國內支出水平的提高創造了條件，而重要的是，這些政策是基于國內的考慮而出臺的。

　　Feldstein’s ideas are controversial. For one, his optimism that the U.S. can get its fiscal house in order confronts a very fractious political environment. For all the talk of lowering deficits, the incoming Republican congress has already backed away from its commitment to trim $100 billion from government spending, while pushing through a largely symbolical health care reform repeal the Congressional Budget Office says would actually worsen the long term outlook for the budget, if it succeeded. Right now, it remains very unclear where a reduced budget deficit will come from.

　　費爾德斯坦的觀點存在爭議。首先，他樂觀地認為美國可以讓財政狀況回歸有序，這與一個動輒不滿的政治環境不符。盡管大家都在說降低赤字，即將履行職權的共和黨國會已經放棄將政府支出削減1,000億美元的承諾，同時推動一項基本上只是象征性的撤銷醫療改革行動，國會預算辦公室(Congressional Budget Office)認為該行動如果成功，事實上將惡化長期預算前景。降低預算赤字從何從開刀，目前仍舊是非常不明朗。