People love conspiracy theories.

　　陰謀論討人喜歡。

　　One in particular has been doing the rounds in FX land for months, with no sign of fizzling out. Right now, it's having a mini revival.

　　其中一個已經在外匯市場流傳數月，沒有完全熄滅的跡象。目前它正在經歷一次小小的復興。

　　The theory goes as follows:

　　論調是這樣的：

　　China is buying euros in a deliberate effort to stop the yuan from rising too far. Sure, it's keeping Washington sweet by letting the yuan climb against the dollar. But it's bashing the buck hard by buying euros, keeping the yuan relatively weak on a trade-weighted basis.

　　中國正在買進歐元，從而蓄意阻止人民幣升值過大。它的確是在允許人民幣對美元升值，讓華盛頓很開心。但通過購買歐元，卻讓人民幣的貿易加權匯率保持相對疲軟，給美元造成重擊。

　　The analysts at BNP Paribas are keen on this idea right now.

　　法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)的分析師目前就熱衷于這個觀點。

　　“China fixes [the dollar] lower [against the yuan] trying to hold increasing commodity import price pressure at the border,” the bank's currencies analysts said Monday in a note to clients. Translation: commodities prices are rising, so China is letting the yuan climb, to make those imports cheaper.

　　該行外匯分析師3月21日致客戶報告說，中國讓美元對人民幣下跌，希望把越來越大的大宗商品進口價格壓力擋在國門之外。也就是說，大宗商品價格正在上漲，所以中國在允許人民幣升值，從而使得這些進口產品價格更低。

　　But, the bank continues: “China seems to be not yet ready accepting general yuan strength, suggesting that the People's Bank of China reserve managers will remain on the euro bid.” Again, a translation for those uninitiated in the dark art of reading currencies research: China still wants to keep the yuan generally weak, so it will keep on buying euros.

　　但巴黎銀行接著說，中國似乎還沒有準備接受人民幣的整體強勢，這意味著中國人民銀行的外匯儲備管理者將繼續購買歐元。再給那些未掌握外匯研究報告閱讀竅門的人們解釋一下：中國仍舊希望保持人民幣的整體疲軟，所以它將繼續購買歐元。

　　Now that the grand G-7 coordinated intervention on the yen has taken place, China can't very easily buy Japanese yen to help keep the yuan under pressure, so this euro buying is likely to accelerate, the French bank added.

　　巴黎銀行說，在七國集團已經聯手對日圓展開大規模干預的情況下，中國不可能非常容易地買到日圓，來從一個方面壓制人民幣匯率，所以這種購買歐元的行為可能會加速。

　　This may or may not be true. It's close to impossible to tell for sure, although it chimes with persistent trading-floor chatter. Whenever the euro runs higher against the buck, with no obvious trigger, traders blame China. Many market watchers are nonplussed by this idea, pointing out that there's a good number of other reasons for the euro to be strong against the dollar right now, despite the long-running European debt crisis. After all, European Central Bank interest rates are set to rise within three weeks. We'll be lucky if the Fed does the same this year. To be fair, BNP Paribas doesn't think this is the only reason for euro strength, either.

　　這樣的說法可能是對的，也可能是錯的。到底是對是錯幾乎無法肯定，不過它與交易大廳內一直流傳的一些閑言絮語差不了多遠。只要歐元在沒有明顯誘發因素的情況下對美元上漲，交易員就歸因于中國。很多市場觀察者對這種想法不解，他們指出，雖然有存在了很久的歐洲債務危機，目前歐元對美元強勢的其他原因還有很多種。至少歐洲央行(European Central Bank)很有可能在三周之內加息。如果美聯儲今年做同樣的事情，美元也會受益。需要說明的是，巴黎銀行也認為中國的購買并不是歐元走強的唯一原因。

　　But if it is true, it goes some way towards solving one of the biggest riddles in the market: the curious case of the weak dollar. With investors' worry lists running into at least two pages, it's weird that the dollar--usually a safe retreat in times of stress--is not significantly stronger.

　　但如果這種說法是對的，市場中最大的謎語之一──美元奇怪地走軟──就得到了一定程度的解釋。在投資者擔憂的事情至少要寫滿兩頁的情況下，困難時期常被當作避風港的美元居然沒有明顯走強。

　　Pinning this on China may be misguided. But the euro's resilience is somewhat odd. And two plus two makes at least five in the currencies markets.

　　將此歸因于中國或許是步入了歧途。但歐元的堅挺或多或少地有些奇怪。而在外匯市場，二加二至少會等于五。