Chinese policymakers are examining bank lending targets for next year that will equal or even exceed their 2010 quota, despite fears about overheating amid the highest inflation in the country in more than two years.

　　中國政策制定者正在研究明年的銀行放貸目標。盡管通脹創逾兩年新高引發了過熱擔憂，但明年新增貸款目標仍可能與今年持平，甚至更高。

　　Most analysts had expected a significant reduction from Beijing’s 2010 target of Rmb7,500bn ($1,100bn) in total new loans, especially after inflation hit 5.1 per cent in November and the government promised to tighten monetary policy.

　　此前分析師大多預期明年新增貸款目標將遠低于今年的7.5萬億元人民幣（合1.1萬億美元），尤其是自從11月通脹觸及5.1%以及政府承諾收緊貨幣政策以后。

　　But on Tuesday, a leading Chinese official newspaper reported that the government’s lending quota would probably again be Rmb7,500bn in 2011.

　　但據本周二中國一份主要官方報紙報道，2011年新增貸款目標很可能保持在7.5萬億元水平。

　　Officials close to the process stressed that the final quota decision has not been made and the Rmb7,500bn figure is just “one opinion”.

　　接近討論過程的官員強調說，最終指標目前尚未敲定，7.5萬億也只是“一種意見”。

　　The various regulatory agencies responsible for economic policy are meeting “every day” to discuss how much credit the state-controlled banking sector will be allocated, officials said.

　　官員們表示，負責經濟政策的各監管機構現在“天天開會”，討論受政府控制的銀行業來年的信貸指標。

　　The range under discussion is between Rmb7,000bn and Rmb8,000bn, with the final quota likely to be at the high end, marking an extension of the credit surge launched in late 2008 to combat the financial crisis. Chinese banks gave twice the volume of loans in 2009 over 2008. Despite attempts to rein in loan growth this year, Chinese banks lent roughly the same amount as they did in 2009, once off-balance sheet lending is taken into consideration.

　　所討論的范圍介于7萬億至8萬億之間，最終可能定在這個區間的高端。這意味著2008年末為應對金融危機而啟動的信貸熱潮將得到延續。2009年中國銀行業的貸款投放規模為2008年的兩倍。今年雖然有意放慢貸款增速，但如果算上表外貸款，各銀行實際放貸規模還是和2009年差不多。

　　“The market was expecting a credit quota of between Rmb5,000bn and Rmb7,000bn with Rmb7,000bn as the ceiling as the government tries to reduce liquidity and deal with inflation,” said Dorris Chen, of BNP Paribas. “It now appears Rmb7,000bn is the floor for next year rather than the ceiling.”

　　法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)分析師陳睆明(Dorris Chen)表示：“鑒于政府在設法減少流動性，應對通脹，市場原本預期明年新增貸款目標會介于5萬億至7萬億之間，7萬億是上限，但如今看來7萬億是下限，而不是上限。”

　　The higher-than-expected quota suggests that Chinese leaders are still relatively sanguine about the country’s inflation prospects.

　　信貸投放目標高于預期似乎表明，中國領導人對國內通脹前景仍然比較樂觀。

　　With food, especially vegetables, driving most of the recent price rises, some analysts believe the problem will be short-lived and that inflation may have already peaked.

　　鑒于近期物價上漲主要由食品（尤其是蔬菜）拉動，一些分析師認為，物價飆升只會是短暫現象，通脹可能已經見頂。

　　But analysts say inflation worries are also being overshadowed by concerns that sharply cutting credit could stall growth by leaving many infrastructure and development projects unfunded. BNP Paribas estimates that local government infrastructure projects, many of them launched as part of Beijing’s stimulus to combat the financial crisis, will require as much as Rmb4,000bn in new loans next year.

　　不過，分析師表示，另一個因素是，中國對經濟增長停滯的擔憂超過了對通脹的擔憂——假如大幅削減信貸，將導致許多基礎設施及開發項目資金缺位，阻礙經濟增長。據法國巴黎銀行估計，明年各地方政府的基礎設施項目需要多達4萬億元人民幣的新貸款，其中許多項目的上馬，是中國為應對金融危機而出臺的經濟刺激計劃的一部分。