China’s average annual rate of economic growth over the next two decades will fall to little more than half the current level as its ability to sustain huge investment declines, according to the Asian Development Bank.

　　亞洲開發銀行(Asian Development Bank)稱，隨著中國維持巨額投資的能力下滑，中國年均經濟增長率在未來20年將下降至略高于目前水平的一半。

　　Such a slowdown would have a dramatic effect on China’s place in the world, significantly delaying the moment at which its economy surpasses that of the US as the world’s largest, having overtaken Japan as the second largest earlier this year.

　　這樣的減速會對中國的國際地位產生重要影響，中國經濟總量超越美國成為世界最大的時間將顯著延后。今年早些時候，中國已超越日本，成為全球第二大經濟體。

　　Jim O’Neill, head of global economic research at Goldman Sachs, forecast in 2009 that China could overtake the US by 2027. However, that prediction relied on China achieving growth of “close to 10 per cent for many years”.

　　高盛(Goldman Sachs)全球經濟研究部主管吉姆•奧尼爾(Jim O'Neill)2009年預測，中國可能在2027年趕超美國。但這項預測的前提是中國增長率“多年接近10%”。

　　In its first official attempt to quantify China’s long-term growth prospects, the ADB said on Tuesday that its baseline projection was just 5.5 per cent on average for the 20 years to 2030, compared with 9.4 per cent between 1981 and 2007 and a forecast 9.6 per cent this year. Growth could average 6.6 per cent if China implemented reforms to reduce its dependence on investment and increase productivity through improvements in education, property rights and research and development, the ADB said. Jong-Wha Lee, ADB chief economist, said many other countries in Asia would face the same growth problem because their rapid rates of economic growth in the past three decades had been underpinned by unsustainable levels of investment. “We don’t think these countries can go back to the previous levels of strong growth that they had before the global financial crisis,” he said. The ADB report forecasts that South Korea’s long-term economic growth will fall from an average of 6.3 per cent to a baseline projection of 3.9 per cent, Taiwan’s from 6.1 per cent to 3.1 per cent, Indonesia’s from 4.8 per cent to 4.4 per cent and India’s from 5.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent.

　　這是亞行首次嘗試量化中國經濟的長期增長前景。該機構周二稱，其基準預測為，截至2030年的20年期間中國經濟年均增長率僅為5.5%，相比之下，中國經濟1981年至2007年的年均增長率為9.4%，今年預計將達到9.6%。亞行稱，如果中國實施改革，降低對投資的依賴，并通過改善教育質量、產權狀況和研發水平來提高生產率，那么年均增長率可達6.6%。亞行首席經濟學家李鐘和(Jong-Wha Lee)指出，由于過去30年間迅猛的經濟增長是由不可持續的投資水平支撐的，其他許多亞洲國家也會面臨同樣的增長問題。他說：“我們不認為這些國家能恢復全球金融危機之前的高速增長水平。”亞行報告預測韓國長期經濟增長率將從平均6.3%下降到3.9%的基準預測水平，臺灣將從6.1%降至3.1%、印尼將從4.8%降至4.4%，而印度將從5.5%降至4.5% 。