新用戶掃碼下載
掃碼下載APP
及時接收最新考試資訊及
備考信息
經濟持續復蘇的三大要素（Three Keys to Sustainable Recovery）
美國就業情況報告好于預期，同時有跡象顯示制造業也開始恢復活力，經濟學家們由此相信經濟復蘇即將到來。但一個大問題依然存在：復蘇是否可持續。摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的伯納（Richard Berner）和格瑞勞（David Greenlaw）在不久前的一份研究報告中列出了經濟持續增長的三大要素。
1. 信貸市場日漸放松。隨著雷曼（Lehman）倒閉后的恐慌漸漸平息，各家銀行的放貸意愿又開始增強。伯納和格瑞勞說，當前形勢正從惡性循環轉向良性循環。雖然貸款損失仍然存在，尤其是在抵押貸款方面，但他們預期收緊信貸條件的銀行會越來越少，將會有更多的資金進入信貸系統。
2. 刺激措施正在發揮作用。政府的刺激計劃在危機正當中時總是加碼最重的，更多蓄勢待發的項目以及全國性和地方性建設項目將在今年年底和明年啟動。這就意味著更多的經濟產出以及與此相關的更多就業機會。
3.去庫存化活動減少。相對于銷售額，庫存量仍然過高。但這并不意味著生產完全停滯。只要各公司增產的速度低于需求增長，他們就可以繼續減少庫存，同時促進經濟增長。
雖然“舊車換現金”項目帶來了強勁需求，但消費前景仍然存在不確定性。但即便消費下降，經濟還是可以繼續增長，避免再度陷入衰退。只不過別指望經濟能實現飛速擴張。
Following a better-than-expected employment report and indications that the manufacturing sector is beginning to revive， economists have become more confident that recovery is coming. But the big questions remains： is a recovery sustainable. In a recent research report， Richard Berner and David Greenlaw of Morgan Stanley outline three keys to sustained growth.
1. Credit markets are loosening up. As the post-Lehman panic subsides banks are becoming more willing to lend again. Berner and Greenlaw say the cycle is moving from 'vicious to virtuous.' Despite continuing loan losses， especially in mortgages， they expect that fewer banks are tightening credit conditions and more money is on its way through the system.
2. Stimulus is coming online. The government's stimulus package was always designed to be heavier in the middle， and more shovel-ready projects and state and local construction will come online at the end of this year and into next. That means more output and more jobs associated with that output.
3. Reduced inventory liquidation. Inventories are still elevated when compared to sales. But that doesn't mean that output has to completely stall. As long as companies raise production less than demand they can continue to draw down inventories while contributing to growth.
Despite strong demand for the cash-for-clunkers program， the outlook for the consumer continues to be uncertain. But even with reduced consumption， the economy can continue to grow and avoid a double-dip recession. Just don't expect blockbuster expansion.
責任編輯：vivien
上一篇：票據的關系人
學員討論（0）
實務學習指南
距6月報稅結束還有天
新用戶掃碼下載
京公網安備 11010802044457號