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油價(jià)下跌有利經(jīng)濟(jì)(Falling Oil Prices Could Help Aid Econ)
油價(jià)終于獲得了應(yīng)有的關(guān)注，但并不是以大多數(shù)人所預(yù)期的方式。
也就是說(shuō)，原油期貨價(jià)格周一再度下跌，但股市卻漲幅可觀。或許我們終于迎來(lái)了一個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)──下跌的油價(jià)被視為對(duì)市場(chǎng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)有利的因素，而非負(fù)面因素。
事實(shí)上本該如此。較低的原油價(jià)格和相應(yīng)較低的汽油價(jià)格令消費(fèi)者有了更多可供支配的開支。較低的能源價(jià)格也對(duì)工業(yè)有好處。然而許多人卻認(rèn)死理，覺(jué)得無(wú)論怎樣，油價(jià)上漲就意味著經(jīng)濟(jì)前景好轉(zhuǎn)。
但受投機(jī)活動(dòng)甚于基本面因素推動(dòng)的油價(jià)，已經(jīng)上漲得太高、太快了，因此成了未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的絆腳石。大幅上漲的油價(jià)與原油高庫(kù)存量以及相當(dāng)溫和的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)不相匹配。回歸更為實(shí)際的價(jià)格水平將給脆弱的經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)提振。
當(dāng)然，在某個(gè)時(shí)間點(diǎn)上，如果經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)轉(zhuǎn)強(qiáng)、就業(yè)市場(chǎng)復(fù)蘇，那么基本面因素將開始推動(dòng)油價(jià)走高。但我們離那個(gè)時(shí)候尚有一段距離。
Oil prices are finally getting the attention they deserve， but not the way that most folks anticipated.
To wit， crude-oil futures are down again Monday， but stocks are substantially higher. Perhaps we are finally seeing the turning point where falling oil prices are seen as a positive， rather than a negative， for the market and the economy.
This is， actually， as it should be. Lower oil prices， and by translation lower gasoline prices， help put more money in consumers' pockets. Lower energy prices also benefit industry. Many folks， however， became wed to the notion that rising oil meant improving economic prospects， no matter what.
But oil， driven by speculation more than fundamentals， raced too high too fast， thereby becoming a brake on any prospective growth. The sharp rise in prices defied high inventory levels and rather meek economic activity. The retreat to more realistic price levels should give the fragile economy a bit of a boost.
Of course， at a certain point fundamentals， in the form of stronger economic growth and a rebound in the employment picture， will start to drive oil prices higher. We are， however， not near that point yet.
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