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The Bric quartet – Brazil, China, India and Russia – own the equivalent of about ¢3,000bn in foreign exchange reserves. Combine this immense sum with the resources of European governments and the European Central Bank, and there emerges the seductive vision of a swift and painless end to the eurozone’s sovereign debt and banking crisis. This vision is a mirage.
金磚四國(巴西、中國、印度和俄羅斯)加起來擁有大約3萬億歐元的外匯儲備。若將這個巨大的金額與歐洲各國政府和歐洲央行(ECB)的資源結合起來,就會產生一個誘人的愿景:歐元區主權債務和銀行業危機迅速而無痛苦地告終。可惜這種愿景是一個幻覺。
The Bric countries undoubtedly fear that Europe’s troubles may soon spread across the oceans and destabilise their economies and financial systems. Such apprehensions may spur the quartet, especially China, to extend some support to the eurozone – at a price, of course. Nevertheless the fundamental responsibility for overcoming the crisis must and will rest with the Europeans themselves.
金磚四國無疑擔心,歐洲的麻煩可能很快跨越汪洋大海,蔓延到自己的國家,破壞它們的經濟和金融體系的穩定。這種擔憂可能促使這四個國家(尤其是中國)向歐元區提供一些支持——當然是有條件的。可是,克服危機的根本責任,必須而且必然會落在歐洲人自己的肩膀上。
The Bric label disguises the fact that the four countries, with which South Africa is sometimes associated, do not really speak with one voice on the world economic stage, let alone co-ordinate their actions in advance. Indian officials were surprised when Brazil proposed on Tuesday that Bric finance ministers and central bank governors should use a meeting in Washington next week to discuss joint action in support of the eurozone. Yet the potential political benefits of such an initiative are obvious. It is a pertinent reminder that the Bric nations are aware not only of the importance of financial market stability, but of the redistribution of global economic power from the west to the east and south.
“金磚四國”這個標簽掩蓋了一個事實,即這四個國家(有時還要加上南非)在世界經濟舞臺上并不以一個聲音說話,更遑論預先協調它們的行動了。當巴西在周二提議,金磚國家財長和央行行長應當借下周在華盛頓召開的會議之機討論支持歐元區的聯合行動時,印度官員感到意外。然而巴西提議的潛在政治效益是明顯的。這恰到好處地提醒了世人:金磚國家不僅意識到金融市場穩定的重要性,還意識到全球經濟實力正從西方向東方和南半球轉移。
China, as the holder of the world’s largest foreign reserves, has a clear interest in preserving the eurozone’s stability. From its launch in 1999, the euro has been viewed in Beijing as a potential long-term counterweight to the dollar. China is heavily invested in US government debt, alarmed at what it sees as fiscal debauchery in Washington, and frustrated at the party political rancour that has impeded efforts to return the public finances to order. All this makes it conceivable that China will buy limited amounts of European sovereign debt in a bid to lift market sentiment in favour of the euro and earn international political credit for itself.
對于擁有全球最大外匯儲備的中國來說,保持歐元區的穩定顯然符合其利益。自歐元在1999年問世起,北京方面一直將其視為長期而言有望與美元抗衡的貨幣。持有大量美國國債的中國,對其眼中美國政府的財政放蕩感到震驚;對于妨礙了恢復公共財政的努力的美國黨派政治之爭,感到失望。這一切都意味著,中國可能購買數量有限的歐洲主權債務,力求提振有利于歐元的市場情緒,并為自己贏得國際政治贊譽。
But China does not hand out free lunches, and Europe has no right to expect any. Beijing is already linking support for the eurozone to official European recognition of China as a market economy. China is also making the point that the Europeans need urgently to get their act together by mastering the debt crisis and reforming their economies. It is a message that is hard to disagree with.
但中國并不提供免費午餐,歐洲也沒有權利期待任何施舍。北京方面已經將支持歐元區與歐洲正式承認中國的市場經濟地位掛鉤。中國還明確指出,歐洲人亟需振作起來,遏制債務危機,改革各國的經濟。這話說的讓人很難不予以認同。
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