Grim times lie ahead for China’s sneaker and athletic-clothing brands about to face the hangover of easy credit and all-too-rapid expansion, according to analysts.

　　Reuter2009年，在一次新聞發布會上，俄羅斯奧運冠軍伊辛巴耶娃(Yelena Isinbayeva)站在中國體育運動品牌李寧的LOGO前。

　　分析師們說，為應對大舉借債和實在太過迅速的擴張導致的后遺癥，中國的運動鞋和運動服生產商未來將面臨一段嚴峻的日子。

　　Once poised to benefit from China’s hosting of the 2008 Beijing Olympics, analysts now view the brands as caught by steroid-like overgrowth of their retailing and wholesale businesses.

　　分析師們認為，中國的這些生產商曾打算借2008年北京奧運會的東風賺上一筆，現在卻因自己的零售和批發業務在人工催長下過度增長而陷入困境。

　　“The overcrowding of stores is beginning to cause cannibalization of sales and [a] price war,” said UOB KayHian analyst Ken Lee in a note released last week.

　　大華繼顯（UOB KayHian）的分析師Ken Lee在一份上周發布的研究報告中說，門店數量過多正開始導致你死我活的競爭和價格戰。

　　The problem, Lee said, can be traced back to the initial-public-offering boom in Hong Kong during recent years, when mainland Chinese consumer-related themes were able to raise funds easily to fuel ambitious growth plans.

　　他說，這一問題可以追溯到最近幾年在香港出現的首次公開募股熱，借著這股熱潮，中國內地的消費相關企業得以容易地籌到資金以推動其雄心勃勃的增長計劃。

　　For example, Peak Sport Products Co. ─ which signed U.S. basketball star Jason Kidd and other top athletes to represent its line of apparel ─ was able to raise $224 million in a September 2009 listing, pledging to use the funds for product development and to expand its retail sales network in China.

　　以匹克體育用品有限公司（Peak Sport Products Co.）為例，它2009年9月通過上市募集資金2.24億美元，并承諾將這筆資金用于產品開發和擴大在中國的零售網絡。匹克體育簽下了美國籃球明星基德（Jason Kidd）和其他一些運動員來做自己運動服的代言人。

　　Likewise, apparel group 361 Degrees International was able to raise $231 million as part of its offer, which debuted in June 2009. Promoters said the company would benefit from sportswear spending, expected to rise at a 30% annualized rate for years.

　　此外，服裝企業361度國際有限公司（361 Degrees International）也通過首次公開募股籌集資金2.31億美元，該公司股票于2009年6月上市交易。當時給這家公司做宣傳的人說，361度國際將從消費者增加在運動服裝方面的支出中獲益，預計該公司將多年保持30%的年增長率。

　　But what followed, says Lee, was a retailing arms race that outpaced consumer spending power.

　　Ken Lee說，接下來出現的卻是各運動服生產商的零售競賽，這一競爭導致市場供應超出了消費者的購買能力。

　　Five of the major Chinese sportswear brands listed in Hong Kong each have retail networks of more than 7,000 mainland Chinese outlets, according to UOB KayHian, citing data at the end of 2010. A sixth brand listed in Hong Kong, focused more on wealthier coastal cities, operates 3,750 outlets.

　　大華繼顯截至2010年底的數據顯示，在香港上市的中國五大運動服生產商，每家在中國內地都有7,000家以上的零售店。第六家在香港上市的中國運動服生產商把業務重點放在那些更富裕的沿海城市，它有3,750家零售店。

　　A recent visit to some of these stores revealed product markdowns of 50% to 90%, or even two-for-one promotions on summer wear.

　　大華繼顯最近考察這些運動服生產商的一些零售店后發現，它們的產品常常降價50%至90%銷售，夏裝甚至在搞買二贈一促銷。

　　“We have never seen such deep and prevalent discounting,” said Lee, whose retail survey in June took him to six cities around the Chinese mainland.

　　Ken Lee今年6月曾到中國內地六座城市考察零售業，他說，我們從未見到過如此大范圍、高幅度的打折。

　　In a note earlier this month, Credit Suisse analysts said they expect some of the brands to merge as they struggle for survival amid what could be a crisis during the current half-year period.

　　瑞信（Credit Suisse）分析師在本月早些時候發表的一份研究報告中說，他們預計中國一些運動服生產商將出于生存需要而進行整合，因為這一行業今年下半年可能爆發一場危機。

　　International brands appear, so far, to be avoiding the fallout. Nike Inc.’s Greater China sales were up 16% in the second quarter from a year earlier. But two recent profit warnings are amounting to a reality check for the Chinese labels.

　　到目前為止，那些生產運動服的跨國公司似乎并未遭受因過度競爭導致的困境。耐克公司（Nike Inc.）今年第二季度的大中華地區銷售額比上年同期增長了16%。但對中國的運動服生產商來說，兩家公司最近發出的利潤預警卻是它們眼下困境的現實寫照。

　　Li Ning Co. on July 7 warned of weaker first-half results, while a day later China Dongxiang Group, makers of popular Chinese brand Kappa, cautioned its first-half profit would be lower than year-earlier levels.

　　李寧有限公司（Li Ning Co.）在7月7日發布預警說，公司上半年業績將較為疲弱，一天之后，中國知名運動裝品牌卡帕(Kappa)的生產商中國動向集團有限公司（China Dongxiang Group）發布預警說，它今年上半年利潤將低于去年同期。

　　“We see this as a turning point ... [showing] investors’ loss of faith in Chinese sportswear stocks,” said Lee, citing a sharp sell-off in share prices across the sector following the profit warnings.

　　Ken Lee說，我們將此視為一個轉折點......這顯示投資者喪失了對中國運動服生產商類股的信心。他說，自己的理由是在上述利潤預警發布后，中國運動服生產商的股票全都遭遇大幅拋售。

　　Li Ning’s board warned that higher raw-material prices were a factor for its upcoming soft numbers, which would see first-half profit fall by as much as 56% from a year earlier.

　　李寧公司董事會告誡說，原材料價格走高是導致其即將發布的盈利數據疲軟的一個因素。其上半年利潤同比最多可能下跌56%。

　　Meanwhile, China Dongxiang said its first-half profit could slump by up to 75% from a year earlier because of weaker sales and a 220 million yuan ($34.1 million) provision to buy back excess inventory from distributors that supply independent retail shops.

　　與此同時，中國動向表示，由于銷量下滑以及計提2.2億元（約合3,410萬美元）準備金用以向分銷商回購積壓庫存，其上半年利潤同比可能最多下滑75%。上述分銷商負責給獨立零售店供貨。

　　Ahead of the profit warnings, Lee downgraded the sportswear sector to underweight, from his previous market-weight view. He was particularly wary of Li Ning’s retail strategy, which includes plans for 10,000 retail outlets within three years, up from around 8,000 currently.

　　在公司發布盈利預警之前，Ken Lee將運動服行業的評級從此前的與市場大盤一致下調為“減持”。他特別警惕李寧的零售戰略。這一戰略包括三年內將零售店面從目前的大約8,000個增加至1萬個。

　　In some cases, the retailer was opening additional outlets on city blocks where it already operated as many as four locations.

　　在某些情況下，零售商打算在一些已經開設了四家店的街區開設新的店面。

　　“Adding more stores doesn’t help,” Lee said, adding that Li Ning’s management is believed to be rethinking the expansion.

　　Ken Lee說開更多的店無助于事，并說李寧管理層應該重新考慮擴張戰略。

　　New factory outlets had driven up Li Ning’s operating expenses but did little to boost overall sales, Citigroup said in a note on the company.

　　花旗集團在一份有關李寧公司的研究報告中說，新開設的工廠直銷店推高了李寧公司的營業費用，但對提高整體銷售額卻幾乎沒有幫助。

　　Citi said Li Ning may have pressed on with the factory-outlet expansion as a way getting rid of unwanted inventory.

　　花旗集團說，李寧公司堅定推進工廠直銷店的擴張戰略，可能是想借此處理積壓庫存。

　　Still, UOB’s Lee believes much of the decline is now irreversible, forecasting Li Ning to swing to a loss beginning in the first half of next year. A key indicator to watch will be sales figures due out in August and another set in the autumn that point to wholesale demand for 2012.

　　盡管如此，大華繼顯的Ken Lee認為銷量下滑的趨勢基本不可逆轉，他預測說李寧公司明年上半年會開始虧損。一個必須留意的關鍵指標是將于8月份出爐的銷售數據，以及今年秋季發布的有關2012年批發需求的數據。

　　What’s coming back to haunt retailers are credit lines and longer payback periods which they extended to wholesalers buyers. Profit margins were a casualty, as vendors cut prices to get ride of excess merchandise.

　　再次困擾零售商的問題包括信用額度以及零售商延長了批發客戶的回款周期。為了處理積壓商品，銷售商紛紛降價，利潤率因此大幅下滑。

　　Morgan Stanley last week cited the need for additional buy-backs of ageing inventory by Li Ning and China Dongxiang’s Kappa as reasons for its bearish views of the sector.

　　上周，摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）以李寧公司和中國動向還要繼續回購過季存貨為由看跌運動服行業的后市。

　　A turnaround by Nike and Adidas AG, which overcame inventory problems in China during a painful two-year workout in late 2008, offered a template for recovery. But Lee said the scale of the problems facing the domestic Chinese brands was bigger.

　　耐克和阿迪達斯公司（Adidas AG）的扭虧為盈提供了一個復蘇的模式。但Ken Lee說中國國內品牌面臨的問題規模更大。從2008年末開始，耐克和阿迪達斯公司在中國經歷了一個痛苦的兩年周期，兩家公司在此期間克服了庫存問題。

　　“Now, even after the plunge in stock prices, we remain pessimistic on the sector,” he said.

　　Ken Lee說，現在即使在股價暴跌之后，我們仍然對該行業持悲觀態度。

　　Still, some Chinese brands offered more optimistic outlooks. Hong Kong-listed Xtep International Holdings Ltd., an apparel group partly owned by the Carlyle Group, said it plans to add 500 retail outlets this year, mainly in smaller urban centers. The move, it said, was designed to tap sportswear sales growth in China of 15% to 18% this year.

　　盡管如此，一些中國運動品牌仍然對前景持有樂觀的預期。在香港上市的特步國際控股有限公司（Xtep International Holdings Ltd.，簡稱：特步國際）表示今年計劃新增500個零售店面，地址主要在二三線城市的中心。這家服裝集團由凱雷集團（Carlyle Group）部分所有。特步國際說此舉意在利用中國國內15%至18%的的運動服銷售額增長率。