China’s manufacturing sector could be heading for its first contraction in a year as new orders drop and factories battle against persistent inflation, according to a survey published on Thursday.

　　根據周四發布的一項調查，中國制造業可能正滑向一年內的首次收縮，新訂單數量下降，工廠艱難應對居高不下的通脹。

　　The HSBC flash purchasing managers’ index for China, designed to provide an early snapshot of industrial conditions, has fallen to 48.9 in July, the lowest in 28 months. The final figure for this month will be published on August 1. A reading below 50 would denote a retrenchment in activity.

　　匯豐(HSBC)的采購經理指數預覽值(flash PMI)意在提供有關工業活動狀況的早期快照。7月份中國制造業PMI預覽值跌至48.9，這是28個月以來的最低位。本月的PMI終值將在8月1日發布。PMI低于50說明活動收縮。

　　The weak PMI added to concerns that sustained monetary tightening by the government is weighing on growth, but analysts cautioned against overreacting, saying that the world’s second largest economy was still poised to perform strongly in the second half.

　　疲弱的PMI加劇了人們的擔憂，即政府堅持不懈地收緊貨幣政策之舉正在影響經濟增長。但分析師們告誡人們不要反應過度，稱今年下半年全球第二大經濟體仍將表現強勁。

　　Qu Hongbin, chief China economist with HSBC, said that “resilience of consumer spending and continued investment in a massive amount of infrastructure projects” would prop up the country’s growth at about 9 per cent over the rest of year. China’s economy expanded 9.6 per cent in the first half, making it the fastest-growing major economy in the world.

　　匯豐中國區首席經濟學家屈宏斌表示，“消費者支出的彈性和大量基建項目的持續投資”將在今年剩余的時間里支撐中國經濟增長，使增速保持在大約9%。今年上半年中國經濟擴張9.6%，是全球增長最快的大型經濟體。

　　Premier Wen Jiabao said last week that the government had to strike a balance between suppressing price pressures and preventing sharp swings in the pace of growth.

　　中國總理溫家寶上周表示，政府必須在遏制價格壓力與防止經濟增長劇烈波動之間達到平衡。

　　Faced with the highest inflation in three years, the central bank has been steadily tightening policy, raising interest rates five times and banks’ reserve requirements nine times in the past nine months.

　　面對三年來最高的通脹，中國央行在過去九個月期間穩步收緊政策，迄今已5次上調利率，9次提高銀行存款準備金率。

　　Even after all those moves, inflation remains a stubborn foe, with the flash PMI pointing to a rebound in input costs in July. But a deepening slowdown in manufacturing growth could compel the government to pause its tightening campaign.

　　即使在采取了所有這些措施后，通脹仍是一個頑固的對手。匯豐的PMI預覽值顯示，7月份投入成本出現反彈。但是，若制造業增長放緩趨勢不斷深化，可能促使中國政府暫停其收緊政策的行動。

　　Reflecting concerns about the outlook, the main Chinese stock market index in Shanghai fell 1 per cent on Thursday, its fourth straight day of declines.

　　周四，中國主要股指——上證綜指下跌1%，這是該指數連續第四天下跌，反映出市場對前景的憂慮。

　　China Development Bank, a major state-owned lender, said it had cancelled a bill issuance scheduled for Friday. It did not explain why, but the central bank’s tightening has drained cash from the Chinese money market, leading to under-subscriptions of a series of short-term debt auctions in recent weeks.

　　國有的中國國家開發銀行(CDB)表示，它已取消了原定在周五進行的一期債券發行。該行并未解釋原因，但中國央行的收緊行動已從中國貨幣市場抽走現金，導致近幾周一系列短期債務的拍賣遭遇認購不足。

　　Taking a longer-term view, the International Monetary Fund said in its annual report about the Chinese economy that the country remained “on a solid footing”, in part thanks to the employment and wage growth that have fuelled domestic consumption. However, it warned that food-driven inflation, a property bubble and declining credit quality all posed risks.

　　從更為長遠的視角看，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)在其有關中國經濟的年報中表示，中國經濟仍“步伐穩健”，部分原因是就業和工資增長提振了國內消費。不過，IMF警告稱，食品價格推動的通脹、房產泡沫和信貸質量下降都構成風險。