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　　（b） Criticise John’s advice

　　The advice is based on an incomplete and flawed risk assessment. Most simple risk assessment frameworks comprise at least two variables of which impact or hazard is only one. The other key variable is probability. Risk impact has to be weighed against probability and the fact that a risk has a high potential impact does not mean the risk should be avoided as long as the probability is within acceptable limits. It is the weighted combination of hazard/impact and probability that forms the basis for meaningful risk assessment.

　　John appears to be very certain of his impact assessments but the case does not tell us on what information the assessment is made. It is important to recognise that ‘hard’ data is very difficult to obtain on both impact and probability. Both measures are often made with a degree of assumption and absolute measures such as John‘s ranking of Risks 1，2 and 3 are not as straightforward as he suggests.

　　John also overlooks a key strategic reason for H&Z bearing the risks in the first place，which is the return achievable by the bearing of risk. Every investment and business strategy carries a degree of risk and this must be weighed against the financial return that can be expected by the bearing of the risk.

　　（c）（i） Define ‘entrepreneurial risk’

　　Entrepreneurial risk is the necessary risk associated with any new business venture or opportunity. It is most clearly seen in entrepreneurial business activity， hence its name. In ‘Ansoff’ terms，entrepreneurial risk is expressed in terms of the unknowns of the market/customer reception of a new venture or of product uncertainties， for example product design，construction，etc. There is also entrepreneurial risk in uncertainties concerning the competences and skills of the entrepreneurs themselves.

　　Entrepreneurial risk is necessary，as Jane Xylene suggested，because it is from taking these risks that business opportunities arise. The fact that the opportunity may not be as hoped does not mean it should not be pursued. Any new product，new market development or new activity is a potential source of entrepreneurial risk but these are also the sources of future revenue streams and hence growth in company value.

　　（ii） Critically evaluate Jane Xylene‘s view of risk management

　　There are a number of arguments against risk management in general. These arguments apply against the totality of risk management and also of the employment of inappropriate risk measures.

　　There is a cost associated with all elements of risk management which must obviously be borne by the company.

　　Disruption to normal organisational practices and procedures as risk systems are complied with.

　　Slowing （introducing friction to） the seizing of new business opportunities or the development of internal systems as they are scrutinised for risk.

　　‘STOP’ errors can occur as a result of risk management systems where a practice or opportunity has been stopped on the grounds of its risk when it should have been allowed to proceed. This may be the case with Risk 3 in the case. （Contrast with ‘GO’ errors which are the opposite of STOP errors.）

　　There are also arguments for risk management people and systems in H&Z. The most obvious benefit is that an effective risk system identifies those risks that could detract from the achievements of the company‘s strategic objectives. In this respect，it can prevent costly mistakes by advising against those actions that may lose the company value. It also has the effect of reassuring investors and capital markets that the company is aware of and is in the process of managing its risks. Where relevant，risk management is necessary for compliance with codes， listing rules or statutory instruments.

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